USF St. Petersburg campus Faculty Publications
Surprise, Defense, or Making Sense: What removes the hindsight bias?
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2003
ISSN
0965-8211
Abstract
This paper examines predictions concerning the absence of hindsight bias. Some hypothesize that because hindsight bias increases with outcome “surprisingness”, only unsurprising outcomes will remove it. Others suggest the opposite—that very surprising outcomes will reduce or reverse the bias. A proposed sensemaking model suggests that unexpected outcomes (i.e., initially surprising) invoke greater sensemaking, which typically produces greater hindsight bias. If the process is not successful, however, the bias may be reduced or reversed. Expected outcomes will also produce little hindsight bias, but only because they invoke relatively little sensemaking in the first place. Feelings of surprise arising from sensemaking (i.e., resultant surprise) should be inversely related to hindsight bias. Results of four experiments provide support for the model. A secondary goal was to determine the boundaries of a defensive-processing mechanism also thought to reduce hindsight bias for negative, self-relevant outcomes. Results suggest that a sense of responsibility for the outcome may be necessary for defensive processing to be activated.
Language
en_US
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Recommended Citation
Pezzo, M. V. (2003). Surprise, Defense, or Making Sense: What removes the hindsight bias? Memory, 11, 421-441. doi: 10.1080/09658210244000603
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
